Significant investment is needed to develop the EV charging infrastructure required to keep pace with the rapid growth in EV adoption.
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The California Air Resources Board recently announced a new goal of tripling electric vehicle sales over the next four years, reaching 35% of all new vehicle sales in the state by 2026, and an executive order is already in place dictating that zero-emission vehicles will be 100% of all new vehicle sales in California by 2035.
Electric vehicles only represent about 1% of the 250 million vehicles on U.S. roads today, but that is quickly changing. In addition to the California mandates, there are many other state and federal goals, along with automaker electrification plans, that are contributing to a rapid rise in EV sales nationwide.
General Motors, for example, plans to sell only zero-emission vehicles by 2035, and the Biden administration has a stated goal of 50% EV sales by 2030. Multiple estimates put the number of EVs on U.S. roads by 2030 at 22 million to 25 million.
3 basic EV chargers
Significant investment is needed to develop the EV charging infrastructure required to keep pace with the rapid growth in EV adoption. There are three basic types of EV chargers, also known as Electric Vehicle Service Equipment – Level 1, Level 2 and DC fast charging.
Capabilities vary, but in general, L1 charging, which is your basic AC outlet, can provide about four miles of range per hour, L2 (240V AC) can provide 10 range miles in an hour, and DCFC can provide an 80% charge from empty in about 30 minutes (for a standard range EV).
The bulk of the EVSE that needs to be deployed will be L2 and DCFC, but the mix of each as well as where and how this will happen is still uncertain as I will explain below.
Understanding the current state of public and shared private EVSE infrastructure can get a bit muddy. Different sources sometimes use the terms EV charger and charging station interchangeably, which isn’t always accurate.
Charging stations and chargers
An EV charging station can have one or more chargers, and a single charger will typically have either one or two ports, which is the number of vehicles that can be simultaneously charged. According to the California Energy Commission, there are about 36,000 public EV charging stations in the state, and per the U.S. Department of Energy, there are about 47,000 public charging stations in the country. These numbers need to increase dramatically to support the expected number of EVs over the next several years.
It’s well understood in the industry that a large majority of drivers will rarely need additional public chargers provided that they can charge at home and/or work.
Federal Highway Administration data from 2019 showed that the average American commuter drives about 40 miles per day. So, for those living in single-family homes with the ability to install an L2 residential charger, their needs would be mostly covered by plugging in overnight, excluding occasional road trips.
The multi-family market
But what about people living in apartments, townhomes, condominiums and mixed-use dwellings? About 31% of the overall population lives in these types of residences, and in large urban areas, it’s often higher — a recent survey by Plug In America indicated that 70% of Los Angeles residents lived in multi-unit spaces.
There are many federal and state incentives already in place to help defray the costs of adding EVSE to multi-family structures, and more funds coming available with the new infrastructure bill, but there are additional obstacles to making charge-at-home more prevalent for apartment dwellers.
Many pre-existing properties and parking garages simply can’t support the power requirements for more than a small percentage of spaces to have even L2 chargers. And tapping into the grid for extra capacity is extremely and usually prohibitively expensive.
Load balancing can help boost the number of EVSE systems that can be supported, but we’re still talking about small numbers of chargers relative to the number of tenants.
Many states are amending their building codes to require some number or percent of spaces to have EV chargers for new residential and commercial construction, which will further help expand our EVSE infrastructure.
More grid capacity needed
However, there is still a major roadblock to rapid EVSE deployment — grid capacity. In a recent article by McKinsey and Co., they estimate the power demand for charging the number of anticipated EVs in 2030 would equal 5% of all U.S. power generation today, and other models have put that number as high as 25%. Either way, the message is clear, we need a lot more grid capacity to enable the transition to electric vehicles.
Parallel to the development of EVSE infrastructure, new wind, solar and other renewable energy installations will be needed to set up smart grids capable of handling future charging demands.
Where and how much energy is needed also depends on the type and location of EVSE. Most of the media buzz around EV charging is centered on expensive DCFC installations and superhubs that mimic something closer to traditional refueling stations, but the majority of public and semi-private EVSE will likely be L2.
A DC fast charger total install cost is around 10 to 20 times that of an L2, and having many vehicles plugged into DCFCs in one area can put huge demands on the local grid.
For the interstate system, DCFCs is what is needed and establishing strategic alternative fuel corridors with EVSE located every 50 miles is the top priority for the $5 billion allocated to EV charging deployment in the new bipartisan infrastructure law.
However, in cities and urban areas, the high cost and grid demand of DCFCs make L2 chargers the obvious choice in most situations, with some exceptions including DCFCs to support future electrified ride-share vehicles and fleets.
Just exactly how the future deployment of EVSE and grid expansions will play out is clearly complicated, and there are a lot of smart technology companies working on different aspects of the solution and from different perspectives, but the number of market variables makes it difficult to predict what the EV charging landscape in the U.S. will look like.
Short-term and long-term considerations
While there are a lot of good federal and state incentives for multi-family structures and businesses to add EV charging capacity, the up-front costs have to be weighed against short-term ROI and long-term futureproofing.
For example, California requires public EV chargers to accept credit card payments via chip card to ensure the greatest level of access for potential consumers.
Apartments and workplaces can restrict their EVSE access to tenants and employees respectively and maintain private status under California law. This enables them to avoid the additional initial cost of an EV charger that accepts EMV-certified card payments, but then they miss out on future opportunities for monetization.
In some cases, attracting new residents or employees may be the only ROI for adding EVSE that is needed.
An alternative model
Another model for supporting EV adoption among renters who don’t have access to charging where they live is called power-sipping or snacking. In this model, drivers top up their batteries as they go about their business at grocery stores, shopping malls, big-box stores, movie theaters, etc. It’s been well studied that EV charger usage can significantly increase dwell time at shopping locations, which translates into real dollars.
Additionally, big box stores and large retail chains have more resources to add EVSE infrastructure and will likely be a large part of the EV charging solution as internal combustion engine vehicles become scarcer.
It’s interesting to note the complementary trends in brick-and-mortar retail — increasing foot traffic and dwell time is the primary benefit for adding EV charging capacity, but physical retail also continues to compete with online sales by offering services like BOPIS (buy online, pickup in-store) and enhanced delivery services like Walmart’s new in-your-fridge grocery delivery service.
The U.S. lags well behind Europe and China in EVSE infrastructure and needs to accelerate quickly to meet the anticipated goals of EV adoption.
Government incentives, public-private partnerships and utility investments will all be needed to deploy chargers and expand the grid. In theory, drivers only need to charge at home, work or along the highway for longer trips — but the reality of developing charging infrastructure is much more complex as we have seen, and it will certainly be interesting to see how the charging market develops.